GW 13 Intermediate Results – Saturday

In this post, I analyse intermediate results for GW13 after the Saturday’s six game. I take a look at 2 samples: randomly selected 20,000 FPL teams and the top 10,000 FPL teams. Because of the law of large numbers, we can make inferences about the overall FPL league based on the statistics for the random sample.
I’ve also added interval estimates for most statistics for the whole FPL game. If you’re familiar with the concept of confidence intervals, you can point at a specific number characterising the random sample to see 99% confidence intervals for the respective number characterising all the 3 million FPL managers.

SUMMARY

  • 6 games out of 10 have finished, but only 4 players out of 12 have played per average team so far. Most popular players are playing tomorrow including Suárez and Agüero who are captains in 93.6% of the top 10K teams and in roughly 38% of all the teams in the game.
Random Sample Top 10K
Number of Managers 20,000 10,000
GW13 Average Score 26.7 34.5
Average Points Deducted for Point Hits 0.7 0.7
Players Played per Team (out of 12) 4.1 4.4
Captains Played 19.3% 3.4%

AVERAGE POINTS PER TEAM BY SOURCE OF POINTS

  • Even though it’s early days yet and this week’s results will be primarily determined by the games that are to be played yet, GW13 already has the signs of a high-scoring week. Most points have been awarded for goals, assists, and clean sheets, while less than 30% of today’s points have come for minutes played. Points for minutes played are relatively stable from week to week and, to compare, they constituted around 39% for the random sample and 34.2% for the top 10K in GW12. To sum up, this week looks to be higher scoring than the previous one so far.
Random Sample Top 10K
Source of Points Points % of the Average Points % of the Average
Minutes Played 7.8 29.3% 8.5 24.6%
Goals Scored 8.6 32.4% 12.4 36.1%
Assists 2.9 11.0% 3.6 10.5%
Clean Sheet Points 5.2 19.7% 7.0 20.4%
Goals Conceded -0.4 -1.3% -0.3 0.7%
Own Goals and Penalty Misses 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0%
Red and Yellow Cards -0.7 -2.6% -1.0 -2.9%
Saves and Penalty Saves 0.2 0.8% 0.2 0.5%
Bonus Points 2.9 10.9% 4.0 11.6%
TOTAL 26.7 100.0% 34.5 100.0%

10 PLAYERS CONTRIBUTING THE MOST TO THE AVERAGE

  • The main sources for a relatively high score so far are the point hauls of Seamus Coleman, the most popular defender, Aaron Ramsey, the most popular midfielder, and Mesut Özil, third most popular midfielder. Together, they’ve raised the average by 15-16 points.
Random Sample Top 10K
Player GW Points Per Average Team % of the Average Player GW Points Per Average Team % of the Average
Ramsey 15 8.9 33.3% Ramsey 15 13.4 38.9%
Coleman 13 3.4 12.8% Coleman 13 5.4 15.7%
Özil 11 3.3 12.4% Özil 11 3.5 10.2%
Lukaku 6 1.4 5.4% Mertesacker 6 2.0 5.7%
Jagielka 6 1.1 4.3% Lukaku 6 1.5 4.3%
Mertesacker 6 1.1 4.0% Jagielka 6 1.3 3.7%
Remy 5 0.9 3.2% Remy 5 1.1 3.3%
Giroud 2 0.7 2.7% Morrison(WHU) 4 0.9 2.6%
Cabaye 6 0.4 1.4% Cabaye 6 0.7 2.0%
Morrison(WHU) 4 0.3 1.2% Giroud 2 0.6 1.7%

AVERAGE POINTS PER TEAM BY LINE IN FORMATION

  • The point hauls of Ramsey and Özil have also led to a sort of an atypical picture for this season when midfielders act as the main points suppliers. Surely, this is going to change tomorrow.
Random Sample Top 10K
Line in Formation Points % of the Average Points % of the Average
Goalkeeper 1.1 4.2% 1.2 3.4%
Defenders 7.3 27.5% 10.8 31.5%
Midfielders 14.6 54.8% 19.1 55.6%
Forwards 3.6 13.4% 3.3 9.6%
Points for Captain 2.4 9.1% 0.4 1.2%
Points on the Bench 4.0 14.9% 2.6 7.4%
TOTAL 26.7 100.0% 34.5 100.0%

AVERAGE POINTS BY POSITION

Random Sample Top 10K
Position Points Points
Goalkeeper 4.8 4.5
Defender 6.5 7.2
Midfielder 8.7 10.5
Forward 3.5 4.1
(*) This table only accounts for players who have played positive minutes this week
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