GW 13 Stats

GW 13 Transfers and Team Selection

In this post, I analyse transfer and team selection decisions of FPL managers in GW13. I take a look at 2 samples: randomly selected 20,000 FPL teams and the top 10,000 FPL teams. Because of the law of large numbers, we can make inferences about the overall FPL league based on the statistics for the random sample.
I’ve also added interval estimates for most statistics for the whole FPL game. If you’re familiar with the concept of confidence intervals, you can point at a specific number characterising the random sample to see 99% confidence intervals for the respective number characterising all the 3 million FPL managers.

TRANSFERS AND TEAM VALUE

  • As usual, there was more transfer activity at the top of the FPL rankings. Top 10K managers made more than 1 transfer on average, 15.2% of them took some point hits. However, average points deducted were only marginally higher than for a casual FPL manager.
  • Only a quarter of the top 10K teams haven’t played their wildcards yet.
  • An average top 10K team costs ₤4.7m more than a typical casual team out there.
Random Sample Top 10K
Number of Managers 20,000 10,000
Average Transfers Made 0.61 1.07
Point Hits Taken 10.1% 15.2%
Average Points Deducted (Incl. No Hits) 0.66 0.74
Wildcards Played 1.1% 0.8%
Wildcard Status
– played 41.5% 74.1%
– available 58.5% 25.9%
– active 0.0% 0.0%
Average Team Value ₤99.9m ₤104.6m
Average Money in the Bank ₤0.8m ₤0.8m

TRANSFERS MADE

  • The number of active managers is constantly decreasing. Roughly 63% didn’t make any transfers in GW11, 64.4% in GW12, this time 65.2% stayed quiet on the transfer market.
  • The situation in the top 10K is entirely different. Only 28.6% saved a transfer this week.
Number Random Sample Top 10K
0 65.2% 28.6%
1 15.6% 40.2%
2 13.0% 25.8%
3 3.2% 3.7%
4 and more 1.9% 0.9%
Wildcard 1.1% 0.8%

POINT HITS TAKEN

  • As usual, top 10K managers showed more caution with respect to the size of the hits they’ve taken. A 4 point hit was rather popular among them, bigger hits were less common.
Point Hit Random Sample Top 10K
0 points 89.9% 84.8%
4 points 6.7% 12.6%
8 points 2.0% 2.1%
12 points 0.7% 0.4%
16 points and more 0.6% 0.1%

TRANSFERS IN

  • Agüero and Mertesacker were the two most popular transfers in this week.
  • In the top 10K, a significantly higher proportion of managers brought in the big German.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Agüero 4.0% 1 Mertesacker 8.2%
2 Mertesacker 3.8% 2 Morrison(WHU) 4.3%
3 Jagielka 3.3% 3 Hazard 4.3%
4 Suárez 2.6% 4 Jagielka 4.1%
5 Lukaku 2.5% 5 Agüero 4.0%
325 different players bought 248 different players bought

TRANSFERS OUT

  • Leighton Baines recent injury has made his numerous owners look for a replacement, which is one of the reasons for the Mertesacker bandwagon.
  • Sturridge and van Persie injury concerns scared away a lot of their owners
  • Mesut Özil’s presence in this table looks kind of odd to me, most likely people got rid of him to free up some funds needed to upgrade Sturridge and other strikers to Agüero, Suárez, and Rooney (next week)
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Baines 6.7% 1 Baines 13.4%
2 Sturridge 3.9% 2 Özil 7.1%
3 Özil 3.5% 3 Sturridge 5.9%
4 van Persie 2.1% 4 Townsend 4.5%
5 Lovren 1.8% 5 Dawson(TOT) 3.6%
431 different players sold 325 different players sold

FORMATIONS

  • Last week was a very bad one for a lot of popular defenders, so the number of teams with 3 players at the back has increased by roughly 3% in the overall league and by 4.4% among the top 10K managers since then.
  • Hardly anyone in the top 10K dares to play 1 striker in this day and age, however, 1% of casuals have done so this week.
Formation Random Sample Top 10K
‘3-4-3’ 45.4% 79.0%
‘3-5-2’ 7.3% 2.6%
‘4-3-3’ 14.1% 14.6%
‘4-4-2’ 30.0% 3.1%
‘4-5-1’ 0.7% 0.0%
‘5-2-3’ 0.6% 0.5%
‘5-3-2’ 1.5% 0.1%
‘5-4-1’ 0.3% 0.0%

CAPTAINCY

  • Up top, it’s basically Agüero vs. Suárez this week.
  • In the overall league, there is much more variety in choices, however, the same pair are far ahead.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 18.9% 1 Agüero 55.7%
2 Agüero 18.8% 2 Suárez 37.9%
3 van Persie 13.1% 3 Rooney 1.0%
4 Sturridge 6.0% 4 Lukaku 0.9%
5 Giroud 5.3% 5 Remy 0.8%
228 different captain choices 38 different captain choices

STARTING GOALKEEPERS

  • Mignolet has officially 39.9% owners. In my random sample, 36.0% have started him, 4.0% have benched him this week. Sounds about right.
  • Boruc is the second most popular goalkeeper to start this week, but in both samples even more managers have benched him this week.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Mignolet 36.0% 1 Mignolet 47.0%
2 Boruc 10.2% 2 Boruc 14.1%
3 Cech 8.3% 3 Begovic 4.8%
4 De Gea 7.0% 4 Jääskeläinen 4.5%
5 Begovic 5.8% 5 Cech 4.4%
58 different goalkeepers 29 different goalkeepers

STARTING DEFENDERS

  • After the exodus of Leighton Baines’ owners, Seamus Coleman has become the most popular defender in both samples.
  • Per Mertesacker and Phil Jagielka have climbed the rankings while Zabaleta retained his positions.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Coleman 26.2% 1 Coleman 41.5%
2 Zabaleta 25.2% 2 Mertesacker 32.6%
3 Ivanovic 22.7% 3 Zabaleta 29.4%
4 Jagielka 19.0% 4 Jagielka 21.5%
5 Mertesacker 17.6% 5 Terry 21.4%
185 different defenders 119 different defenders

STARTING MIDFIELDERS

  • Aaron Ramsey and Yaya Touré stay firmly at the top of this table with crazy ownership figures for the former. As it’s Mesut Özil who is losing owners, things don’t look like changing any time soon.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Ramsey 56.5% 1 Ramsey 89.1%
2 Yaya Touré 36.8% 2 Yaya Touré 53.8%
3 Özil 26.7% 3 Özil 31.4%
4 Barkley 24.3% 4 Hazard 30.8%
5 Hazard 19.6% 5 Oscar 27.7%
222 different midfielders 118 different midfielders

STARTING FORWARDS

  • Interestingly, after ‘only’ 9 points last week, Luis Suárez’ ownership has somewhat decreased among the top 10K managers from 91.1% to 89.9%. However, he is still the most popular player up there.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 31.6% 1 Suárez 89.9%
2 Giroud 31.2% 2 Agüero 79.4%
3 Agüero 30.8% 3 Giroud 29.3%
4 Sturridge 27.2% 4 Rooney 26.7%
5 Lukaku 21.6% 5 Lukaku 23.8%
101 different forwards 40 different forwards

BENCHED PLAYERS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Boruc 12.9% 1 Boruc 23.7%
2 Whittaker 11.6% 2 Fonte 17.3%
3 Kelvin Davis 10.6% 3 Shaw 16.3%
4 Given 8.7% 4 Dawson(TOT) 14.6%
5 Baker 8.4% 5 Whittaker 13.6%
581 different players on the bench 452 different players on the bench

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