GW 13 Final Results

GW 13 Results – Final

In this post, I present final results for GW13. I take a look at 2 samples: randomly selected 20,000 FPL teams and the top 10,000 FPL teams. Because of the law of large numbers, we can make inferences about the overall FPL league based on the statistics for the random sample.
I’ve also added interval estimates for most statistics for the whole FPL game. If you’re familiar with the concept of confidence intervals, you can point at a specific number characterising the random sample to see 99% confidence intervals for the respective number characterising all the 3 million FPL managers.

SUMMARY

  • It was another relatively high scoring week even though most popular captain choices failed to deliver today. The official overall average is 50 points, which is the sixth highest scoring result this season.
  • 46.5 was the average score for the random sample before automatic substitutions and vice-captaincies, 50.7 is the final average after 1.5 players were subbed in for an average team.
  • Average number of players who played positive minutes has declined from 11.6 to 11.3 since GW 11. Looks like the injuries of RvP, Sturridge, and Baines have hurt a lot of dead teams.
Random Sample Top 10K
Number of Managers 20,000 10,000
GW13 Average Score 50.7 58.7
Average Points Deducted for Point Hits 0.7 0.7
Players Played per Team (out of 12) 11.3 11.9
Captains Played 95.7% 100.0%
of Which: Vice-Captains 18.9% 0.3%

AVERAGE POINTS PER TEAM BY SOURCE OF POINTS

  • An average top 10K team has beaten a typical casual team in almost everything this week. The only negative is more points deducted for yellow and red cards. Aguero trying to do a Maradona was the main factor.
Random Sample Top 10K
Source of Points Points % of the Average Points % of the Average
Minutes Played 21.3 41.9% 22.9 38.9%
Goals Scored 13.8 27.3% 17.6 29.9%
Assists 5.9 11.6% 6.4 10.8%
Clean Sheet Points 7.6 15.1% 9.2 15.6%
Goals Conceded -2.2 -4.3% -1.8 -3.0%
Own Goals and Penalty Misses -0.0 0.0% -0.0 0.0%
Red and Yellow Cards -1.8 -3.5% -2.8 -4.6%
Saves and Penalty Saves 0.4 0.7% 0.4 0.6%
Bonus Points 5.8 11.5% 7.1 12.1%
TOTAL 50.7 100.0% 58.7 100.0%

10 PLAYERS CONTRIBUTING THE MOST TO THE AVERAGE

  • The 10 players in the table below raised the average by roughly 30 points or 60%. The other 594 players available in the game scored the other 20 points or 40% of all the points.
  • This situation is even more striking among the top 10K team. 70.55% of average points were scored by the 10 players below; 90% of all the points were scored by 27 players.
Random Sample Top 10K
Player GW Points Per Average Team % of the Average Player GW Points Per Average Team % of the Average
Ramsey 15 9.1 18.0% Ramsey 15 13.4 22.9%
Coleman 13 3.6 7.1% Coleman 13 5.5 9.3%
Özil 11 3.4 6.7% Yaya Touré 7 3.8 6.5%
Zabaleta 11 2.9 5.7% Rooney 13 3.6 6.1%
Yaya Touré 7 2.9 5.7% Özil 11 3.5 6.0%
Rooney 13 2.6 5.0% Zabaleta 11 3.2 5.5%
Terry 11 1.8 3.5% Suárez 2 2.6 4.4%
Lukaku 6 1.5 3.0% Terry 11 2.4 4.0%
Jagielka 6 1.2 2.4% Mertesacker 6 2.0 3.4%
Mertesacker 6 1.1 2.2% Lukaku 6 1.5 2.5%

AVERAGE POINTS PER TEAM BY LINE IN FORMATION

  • The three most popular midfielders, Ramsey, Yaya Touré, and Özil, all delivered good points this week and secured a good result for midfielders in this hypothetical ‘battle of lines’. Their ownership numbers are even higher among the top 10K players, so they’ve got even more average points for midfielders.
  • In contrast, the three most popular strikers, Suárez, Giroud, and Agüero, all failed this week. Had these three scored the same points as last week, this week would have become the highest scoring week of the season beating even DoubleGW1’s 63 points.
  • 3.5 points per average captain for a top10K team looks simply ridiculous especially after last week’s 20.7 points.
Random Sample Top 10K
Line in Formation Points % of the Average Points % of the Average
Goalkeeper 2.3 4.4% 2.3 3.9%
Defenders 16.3 32.1% 18.7 31.9%
Midfielders 23.0 45.4% 26.6 45.4%
Forwards 9.2 18.1% 11.1 18.9%
Points for Captain 7.6 15.0% 3.5 5.9%
Points on the Bench 2.9 5.7% 3.8 6.5%
TOTAL 50.7 100.0% 58.7 100.0%

AVERAGE POINTS BY POSITION

  • This was the week of midfielders and defenders. So, those 1% of casuals who played ‘5-4-1’ or ‘4-5-1’ this week, I salute you. Well played.
Random Sample Top 10K
Position Points Points
Goalkeeper 2.2 2.3
Defender 4.6 5.6
Midfielder 5.7 7.0
Forward 3.4 3.4
(*) This table only accounts for players who have played positive minutes this week

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