GW15 Transfers and Team Selection

In this post, I present transfer and team selection statistics for GW 15. I take a look at 2 samples: randomly selected 20,000 FPL teams and the top 10,000 FPL teams. Because of the law of large numbers, we can make inferences about the overall FPL league based on the statistics for the random sample.
Interval estimates for most statistics for the whole FPL game are also available. If you’re familiar with the concept of confidence intervals, you can point at a specific number characterising the random sample to see 99% confidence intervals for the respective number characterising all the 3 million FPL managers.

TRANSFERS AND TEAM VALUE

  • After a dip in transfer activity for GW14, transfers made and point hits taken are almost back to their usual levels. 0.67 transfers were made by an average team this time, an average top 10K team made over 1 transfer.
  • The suspensions of Ravel Morrison and Wayne Rooney as well as injury concerns for some popular FPL picks have triggered a relatively high amount of point hits. 10.9% of FPL players took a point hit this week, this is the highest value since I started to calculate these statistics in GW11. Previous values were 10.5%, 10.0%, 10.1%, and 7.9% in GW11, GW12, GW13, and GW14 respectively.
Random Sample Top 10K
Number of Managers 20,000 10,000
Average Transfers Made 0.67 1.10
Point Hits Taken 10.9% 13.6%
Average Points Deducted (Incl. No Hits) 0.70 0.64
Wildcards Played 1.1% 0.5%
Wildcard Status
– played 43.4% 78.1%
– available 56.6% 21.9%
– active 0.0% 0.0%
Average Team Value ₤100.0m ₤105.6m
Average Money in the Bank ₤0.8m ₤0.8m

TRANSFERS MADE

  • Roughly 63% didn’t make any transfers in GW11, 64.4% in GW12, 65.2% in GW13, 70.6% in GW14 (a lot of managers probably missed the deadline). This time 64% ignored the transfers market.
  • In the top 10K, the proportion of fantasy managers who saved their transfer this week is minimal since GW12.
Number Random Sample Top 10K
0 64.0% 27.4%
1 13.6% 39.3%
2 15.4% 28.4%
3 3.9% 3.8%
4 and more 2.0% 0.6%
Wildcard 1.1% 0.5%

POINT HITS TAKEN

  • As usual, more FPL managers took point hits this week compared to the rest of the game but an average size of a hit for them was lower yet again. As a result, an average top 10K manager had even less points deducted than an average casual team.
Point Hit Random Sample Top 10K
0 points 89.1% 86.4%
4 points 7.6% 11.7%
8 points 2.1% 1.6%
12 points 0.7% 0.3%
16 points and more 0.5% 0.1%

TRANSFERS IN

  • A lot of bitter Suarez non-owners gave up after he set this season’s record for the amount of points scored in one match and finally brought him in. Those who have already got him in their teams, went mostly for Jonjo Shelvey and Eden Hazard.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 6.6% 1 Shelvey 12.5%
2 Shelvey 5.2% 2 Hazard 8.9%
3 Hazard 3.9% 3 Lukaku 5.1%
4 Lukaku 3.0% 4 Agüero 3.5%
5 Agüero 2.3% 5 Oviedo 3.2%
348 different players bought 254 different players bought

TRANSFERS OUT

  • A one game ban for Wayne Rooney has brought him to the top of the most popular transfers out. Every striker spot seems precious these days, so a lot of people have decided to go for a replacement. Are these people going to transfer him back in? I believe it will depend a lot on this week’s performance of his alternetatives.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Rooney 6.9% 1 Rooney 14.3%
2 Sturridge 4.8% 2 Morrison(WHU) 8.9%
3 Oscar 4.6% 3 Boruc 6.4%
4 Boruc 3.3% 4 Oscar 6.1%
5 Morrison(WHU) 3.1% 5 Fonte 4.3%
429 different players sold 318 different players sold

FORMATIONS

  • Even though strikers and midfielders earned a lot of points last week, this week less teams than usually have opted for a ‘3-4-3’ formation. This phenomenon is especially striking among the top 10K fantasy managers, where the proportion of this formation was 79% only two weeks ago. Looks like a lot of teams experience a shortage of players this week and have to play an undesired formation, benching their suspended and injured players.
Formation Random Sample Top 10K
‘3-4-3’ 40.4% 58.1%
‘3-5-2’ 8.8% 9.7%
‘4-3-3’ 15.0% 15.7%
‘4-4-2’ 32.1% 14.1%
‘4-5-1’ 1.0% 0.2%
‘5-2-3’ 0.7% 0.5%
‘5-3-2’ 1.6% 1.5%
‘5-4-1’ 0.4% 0.1%

CAPTAINCY

  • Luis Suárez has firmly established himself at the top of captaincy rankings. The amount of managers in the top 10K who have captained him this week is simply mind-blowing. If he fails to deliver this week, those who have opted for a differential captain should find it easy to climb up the rankings. But if he has another field day, huge red arrows for them are almost inevitable.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 34.2% 1 Suárez 96.8%
2 van Persie 11.9% 2 Agüero 1.8%
3 Agüero 10.1% 3 Hazard 0.3%
4 Giroud 4.5% 4 Giroud 0.2%
5 Ramsey 3.9% 5 Özil 0.2%
230 different captain choices 25 different captain choices

STARTING GOALKEEPERS

  • Mignolet stays the most popular goalkeeper in both samples. He doesn’t rack up points as most people could expect, but looks like there is no decent alternative to him.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Mignolet 35.9% 1 Mignolet 47.2%
2 Cech 8.5% 2 Szczesny 8.1%
3 De Gea 7.3% 3 Begovic 5.2%
4 Begovic 5.9% 4 Marshall 4.1%
5 Szczesny 5.6% 5 Pantilimon 3.9%
53 different goalkeepers 29 different goalkeepers

STARTING DEFENDERS

  • After a lot of people benched their Everton defenders last week and were burnt by their subsequent clean sheets, most Coleman owners have preferred to start him even despite an even tougher fixture this week.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Coleman 27.5% 1 Coleman 43.2%
2 Zabaleta 25.4% 2 Zabaleta 36.2%
3 Ivanovic 21.3% 3 Mertesacker 36.2%
4 Mertesacker 20.4% 4 Terry 25.6%
5 Jagielka 19.0% 5 Dawson(TOT) 22.1%
185 different defenders 117 different defenders

STARTING MIDFIELDERS

  • This table hasn’t changed much since the previous week. Ravel Morrison was replaced by Adam Lallana as the fifth most popular midfielder among the top 10K fantasy managers; Eden Hazard and Mesut Özil have significantly increased their ownership figures.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Ramsey 59.8% 1 Ramsey 95.0%
2 Yaya Touré 38.3% 2 Yaya Touré 64.5%
3 Özil 26.9% 3 Hazard 46.1%
4 Hazard 23.7% 4 Özil 40.9%
5 Barkley 18.3% 5 Lallana 15.6%
223 different midfielders 119 different midfielders

STARTING FORWARDS

  • Only 67 FPL managers out of the top 10,000 still don’t have Luis Suárez, this must be some kind of a record.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 39.4% 1 Suárez 99.3%
2 Agüero 33.0% 2 Agüero 69.4%
3 Giroud 32.1% 3 Lukaku 34.7%
4 Lukaku 25.4% 4 Giroud 28.6%
5 van Persie 17.8% 5 Remy 16.4%
99 different forwards 47 different forwards

BENCHED PLAYERS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Boruc 12.7% 1 Morrison(WHU) 20.7%
2 Whittaker 11.3% 2 Boruc 18.1%
3 Kelvin Davis 10.9% 3 Rooney 17.5%
4 Barkley 9.9% 4 Barkley 17.5%
5 Baker 9.2% 5 Coleman 15.1%
579 different players on the bench 441 different players on the bench
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