GW 17 Stats

GW 17 Transfers and Team Selection

Please welcome statistics on team selection and transfer activity for GW 17. Sergio Agüero owners exodus, points hits galore, mind-blowing Suarez captaincy rates, the rise of Seamus Coleman and much more.

I’ve also added a new feature: from this week and on, I’m going to present charts with ownership and captaincy distributions for the 1o most captained players in the game. These charts are constructed based on my samples of 20,000 randomly selected teams.

TRANSFERS AND TEAM VALUE

  • Last week I was impressed by an ‘unusually high’ number of point hits taken. However, those figures, namely 10.1% and 16.0%, look kind of laughable compared to the point hits galore this time. Aguero and Zabaleta injuries triggered a lot of forced transfers and, as a result, almost every third team in the top 10K has started this week on negative points.
  • Aguero sales have significantly increased cash on hand of an average FPL team; an average top 10K manager now has ₤1.6m in the bank compared to only ₤0.7m last week.
Random Sample Top 10K
Number of Managers 20,000 10,000
Average Transfers Made 0.79 1.47
Point Hits Taken 15.0% 28.5%
Average Points Deducted (Incl. No Hits) 0.98 1.43
Wildcards Played 1.2% 1.2%
Wildcard Status
– played 45.7% 79.7%
– available 54.3% 20.3%
– active 0.0% 0.0%
Average Team Value ₤100.0m ₤105.3m
Average Money in the Bank ₤1.0m ₤1.6m

TRANSFERS MADE

  • Only 12.6% of teams in the top 10K managed to save a transfer. The respective figure for the random sample rather reflects the number of dead teams.
  • Roughly half of the teams in the top 10K made at least 2 transfers.
Number Random Sample Top 10K
0 58.5% 12.6%
1 15.1% 38.2%
2 17.9% 37.9%
3 4.7% 8.4%
4 and more 2.6% 1.7%
Wildcard 1.2% 1.2%

POINT HITS TAKEN

Point Hit Random Sample Top 10K
0 points 85.0% 71.5%
4 points 10.0% 22.7%
8 points 3.1% 4.8%
12 points 1.0% 0.8%
16 points and more 0.9% 0.2%

TRANSFERS IN

  • Most forwards in these tables were brought in as a replacement for Sergio Aguero. To keep a stake in the best attack of the league, most have opted for Alvaro Negredo, his team mate.
  • Interesting to see Jordan Henderson among the top 5 transfers of the week for the top fantasy managers. He is linking very well with Suarez and as a result is profiting from the astonishing performance of the Uruguayan.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Negredo 9.7% 1 Negredo 32.5%
2 Rooney 6.3% 2 Rooney 22.7%
3 Suárez 6.2% 3 Lukaku 8.6%
4 Lukaku 3.8% 4 Silva 6.1%
5 Coleman 2.9% 5 Henderson(LIV) 4.2%
337 different players bought 226 different players bought

TRANSFERS OUT

  • This is the definition of ‘exodus’. Aguero was eating a lot of funds, so his owners didn’t hesitate to transfer him out this week even if it was for a hit.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Agüero 20.9% 1 Agüero 62.3%
2 Giroud 3.3% 2 Zabaleta 7.7%
3 Zabaleta 3.1% 3 Giroud 3.7%
4 Rooney 1.9% 4 Lampard 3.4%
5 Paulinho 1.9% 5 Koscielny 3.3%
412 different players sold 305 different players sold

FORMATIONS

  • These percentages have been relatively stable since I started my blog. The only exception was GW 15 when Wayne Rooney got suspended and most his owners had to bench him decreasing the popularity of the ‘3-4-3’ formation.
Formation Random Sample Top 10K
‘3-4-3’ 45.2% 74.7%
‘3-5-2’ 7.6% 6.4%
‘4-3-3’ 14.0% 13.0%
‘4-4-2’ 29.9% 5.2%
‘4-5-1’ 1.0% 0.2%
‘5-2-3’ 0.5% 0.2%
‘5-3-2’ 1.4% 0.3%
‘5-4-1’ 0.3% 0.1%

CAPTAINCY

  • These are mind-blowing figures, which might easily be the all time record. Of course, every active fantasy manager has given the armband to Suárez this week. However, this is getting boring as we’re basically playing with only 10 players and without a captain as we’re all getting the same points for Suárez (c). Next couple of weeks should be more interesting, although, without a doubt, the vast majority will give the armband to the Uruguayan yet again.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 44.3% 1 Suárez 98.4%
2 van Persie 10.8% 2 Rooney 0.4%
3 Rooney 3.8% 3 Lukaku 0.3%
4 Agüero 3.8% 4 Hazard 0.3%
5 Sturridge 3.0% 5 Negredo 0.2%
223 different captain choices 27 different captain choices

STARTING GOALKEEPERS

  • Mignolet finally managed to keep a clean sheet last week and, thus, pleased the huge army of his owners.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Mignolet 34.9% 1 Mignolet 45.5%
2 Cech 7.6% 2 Howard 8.3%
3 Howard 7.5% 3 Begovic 6.2%
4 De Gea 7.4% 4 Krul 5.4%
5 Begovic 6.0% 5 Jääskeläinen 4.7%
54 different goalkeepers 30 different goalkeepers

STARTING DEFENDERS

  • Seamus Coleman has been the most popular defender in the game for a few weeks now, but his ownership has kept on rising dramatically. He has already overtaken Yaya Toure as the third most popular pick among the top 10K teams and is only behind Suarez and Ramsey now.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Coleman 36.7% 1 Coleman 72.4%
2 Jagielka 22.3% 2 Mertesacker 30.4%
3 Mertesacker 20.4% 3 Jagielka 23.3%
4 Zabaleta 18.7% 4 Zabaleta 15.7%
5 Ivanovic 18.2% 5 Shaw 14.9%
187 different defenders 113 different defenders

STARTING MIDFIELDERS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Ramsey 59.5% 1 Ramsey 93.0%
2 Yaya Touré 40.5% 2 Yaya Touré 68.4%
3 Özil 26.4% 3 Özil 49.8%
4 Hazard 26.2% 4 Hazard 48.0%
5 Barkley 21.9% 5 Barkley 16.9%
225 different midfielders 115 different midfielders

STARTING FORWARDS

  • There was only one team without Suarez in the top 10K this week. No doubt, after another point haul that we saw today, this team is not there any more.
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 49.3% 1 Suárez 100.0%
2 Lukaku 33.0% 2 Lukaku 58.9%
3 Giroud 25.2% 3 Rooney 42.8%
4 Rooney 18.3% 4 Negredo 36.9%
5 Remy 15.5% 5 Giroud 14.0%
101 different forwards 43 different forwards

BENCHED PLAYERS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Boruc 10.9% 1 Kelvin Davis 15.6%
2 Whittaker 10.8% 2 Morrison(WHU) 14.7%
3 Kelvin Davis 10.5% 3 Baker 14.0%
4 Baker 9.4% 4 Zabaleta 13.7%
5 Harper 8.4% 5 Boruc 13.0%
581 different players on the bench 449 different players on the bench

OWNERSHIP AND CAPTAINCY DISTRIBUTION FOR MOST CAPTAINED PLAYERS

  • This is the new part of my weekly posts on team selection and transfers. One can see where in the rankings are those who captain Suarez and where are those who still captain RvP. This week we see an extreme picture when almost every man alive has captained Suarez, but hopefully we’ll be able to see a more interesting picture in the future.

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About This Post

In this post, I take a look at 2 samples: randomly selected 20,000 FPL teams and the top 10,000 FPL teams. Because of the law of large numbers, we can make inferences about the overall FPL league based on the statistics for the random sample. Interval estimates for most statistics for the whole FPL game are also available. If you’re familiar with the concept of confidence intervals, you can point at a specific number characterising the random sample to see 99% confidence intervals for the respective number characterising all the 3 million FPL managers.

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