GW 18 Team Selection and Transfers

HO-HO-HO, Merry Christmas! Here is a Chrismas present from me: statistics on team selection and transfer activity for GW 18 🙂

TRANSFERS AND TEAM VALUE

Random Sample Top 10K
Number of Managers 20,000 10,000
Average Transfers Made 0.50 0.86
Point Hits Taken 8.7% 10.8%
Average Points Deducted (Incl. No Hits) 0.52 0.49
Wildcards Played 0.7% 0.3%
Wildcard Status
– played 45.9% 80.3%
– available 54.1% 19.7%
– active 0.0% 0.0%
Average Team Value ₤100.2m ₤106.3m
Average Money in the Bank ₤0.9m ₤1.3m

TRANSFERS MADE

Number Random Sample Top 10K
0 69.0% 32.3%
1 16.8% 50.6%
2 10.3% 15.2%
3 2.1% 1.3%
4 and more 1.2% 0.2%
Wildcard 0.7% 0.3%

POINT HITS TAKEN

Point Hit Random Sample Top 10K
0 points 91.3% 89.2%
4 points 6.3% 9.7%
8 points 1.5% 0.9%
12 points 0.4% 0.1%
16 points and more 0.5% 0.0%

TRANSFERS IN

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Rooney 4.2% 1 Rooney 8.3%
2 Cabaye 3.2% 2 Adebayor 5.9%
3 Adebayor 2.4% 3 Cabaye 5.2%
4 Coleman 2.4% 4 Januzaj 3.8%
5 Barkley 1.9% 5 Debuchy 3.6%
291 different players bought 218 different players bought

TRANSFERS OUT

Random Sample Top 10K
1 AgĂĽero 3.6% 1 Zabaleta 6.7%
2 Zabaleta 3.1% 2 Negredo 5.1%
3 Remy 1.8% 3 Mignolet 4.3%
4 Negredo 1.6% 4 AgĂĽero 4.0%
5 Fonte 1.5% 5 Shelvey 3.3%
385 different players sold 302 different players sold

FORMATIONS

Formation Random Sample Top 10K
‘3-4-3’ 45.3% 77.4%
‘3-5-2’ 8.4% 6.3%
‘4-3-3’ 13.5% 11.1%
‘4-4-2’ 29.7% 4.7%
‘4-5-1’ 1.0% 0.1%
‘5-2-3’ 0.5% 0.2%
‘5-3-2’ 1.3% 0.2%
‘5-4-1’ 0.3% 0.1%

CAPTAINCY

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 34.3% 1 Suárez 62.5%
2 van Persie 10.6% 2 Rooney 18.0%
3 Rooney 9.1% 3 Lukaku 9.8%
4 Lukaku 5.5% 4 Hazard 2.1%
5 AgĂĽero 3.2% 5 Negredo 1.7%
232 different captain choices 33 different captain choices

STARTING GOALKEEPERS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Mignolet 30.6% 1 Mignolet 32.7%
2 Howard 8.6% 2 Howard 11.8%
3 Cech 7.9% 3 Krul 10.5%
4 De Gea 7.9% 4 Szczesny 7.6%
5 Begovic 6.7% 5 Marshall 6.0%
57 different goalkeepers 30 different goalkeepers

STARTING DEFENDERS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Coleman 38.8% 1 Coleman 80.4%
2 Jagielka 23.4% 2 Mertesacker 44.2%
3 Mertesacker 22.7% 3 Jagielka 22.8%
4 Ivanovic 19.3% 4 Terry 21.0%
5 Terry 15.9% 5 Dawson(TOT) 12.9%
186 different defenders 105 different defenders

STARTING MIDFIELDERS

  • Some other players for the top 10K outside of the top 5: Cabaye (19.1%), Lallana (16.1%), Januzaj (11.9%), Silva (11%), Nasri (6.0%), Walcott (4.3%)
Random Sample Top 10K
1 Ramsey 59.7% 1 Ramsey 92.2%
2 Yaya Touré 41.6% 2 Yaya Touré 74.1%
3 Ă–zil 25.8% 3 Hazard 45.1%
4 Hazard 25.2% 4 Ă–zil 43.0%
5 Barkley 25.1% 5 Barkley 29.3%
226 different midfielders 102 different midfielders

STARTING FORWARDS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Suárez 49.8% 1 Suárez 99.8%
2 Lukaku 33.1% 2 Rooney 59.4%
3 Giroud 24.4% 3 Lukaku 56.4%
4 Rooney 22.4% 4 Negredo 31.6%
5 van Persie 14.9% 5 Giroud 11.4%
101 different forwards 41 different forwards

BENCHED PLAYERS

Random Sample Top 10K
1 Kelvin Davis 10.8% 1 Zabaleta 15.2%
2 Whittaker 10.0% 2 Kelvin Davis 15.1%
3 Boruc 9.8% 3 Morrison(WHU) 14.1%
4 Baker 8.8% 4 Gabbidon 13.7%
5 Harper 7.9% 5 Baker 12.2%
581 different players on the bench 450 different players on the bench

OWNERSHIP AND CAPTAINCY DISTRIBUTION FOR MOST CAPTAINED PLAYERS

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About This Post

In this post, I take a look at 2 samples: randomly selected 20,000 FPL teams and the top 10,000 FPL teams. Because of the law of large numbers, we can make inferences about the overall FPL league based on the statistics for the random sample. Interval estimates for most statistics for the whole FPL game are also available. If you’re familiar with the concept of confidence intervals, you can point at a specific number characterising the random sample to see 99% confidence intervals for the respective number characterising all the 3 million FPL managers.

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