Research DGW players

DGW Player Analysis

This is not really a decent research post, but rather a little addition to my transfers and team selection post. Some people are wondering how many DGW players other teams have on average. To answer this question, I’ve summarised the data for starting line-ups in GW31. In the tables below, starting line-ups are broken down by club and by position. To calculate the average number of DGW players, I’ve summed up the average numbers of players per team from Arsenal, Everton, Hull, Liverpool, MCity, MU, Newcastle, Sunderland, Swansea, and West Ham.

Table 1. In the top 10K, an average team has 9.9 DGW players and 2.1 players with only one game. Most popular teams are:

  • Liverpool  – 3.7 players (this number reflects that 98% captained Suarez or Sturridge),
  • Manchester City – 1.6 players,
  • Everton – 1.5 players,
  • Chelsea – 1.3 players

Top10K Players

Table 2. In the overall FPL league, an average team has roughly 8.3 DGW players and 3.7 players with only one game. Most popular teams are:

  • Liverpool  – 2.2 players,
  • Manchester City – 1.3 players,
  • Arsenal – 1.3 players,
  • Chelsea – 1.3 players,
  • Everton -1.2 players

However, the choice of players is rather poor compared to the top 10K: on average, 2.3 players haven’t played yet (RvP, Ramsey, Özil, and Agüero are the most popular non-playing DGW players, they add up to 0.6 players).

Random Sample Players

Table 3. Breakdown by number of DGW players


4 comments on “DGW Player Analysis

  1. Thanks Metrician! I would be interested to know what you do in your day job….

    Have several ideas for research articles and a few (plausible) theories borrowed laterally from the world of finance. Might be lost on the average fpl player but you will get it. Let me know if you ever get bored!

    Thanks again, you’re a star.

    • Added one more table with the breakdown of the average number of DGW players.

      Hah, I do have financial education, so I’d defnitely understand you. The thing is that I don’t have enough spare time any more and my interest in FPL has significantly diminished after a disastrous season… I have planned 2 research articles for ages (Dawn of the Dead 2 and the one on the transfers efficiency). But whenever I think of working on them, there is always something better or more important to do… I guess I should brace myself and write at least one this week. What ideas do you have?

  2. Completely understand. I have spent most of the season in the top 500 so am more enthusiastic about it, for now…:) But FPL is a game mixing skill and chance (like poker) so while winning is nice (obviously) my main objective is learning more about my behaviour when confronted by variance. Self knowledge, when it can be acquired cheaply, is a beautiful thing….

    But enough of that, I was thinking of delving more into the value of the wildcard, whether there is a way to quantify that value in terms of points. Believe it or not I am one of those 7.2% in the top 10k still with it. I am waiting to near the very end to play it (gw 37). Was wondering at the end of last season whether it is possible to think about the wildcard as a financial option, in terms of its intrinsic value and its time value. For me, a wildcard is like an American option (as opposed to European option) and the rule of thumb is never to exercise an American option before its expiry so that’s something I am testing out this season.

    Unfortunately, my forte is not in writing script or designing ways to crunch data so I thought I would reach out to you, the only FPL fan I know who talks in terms of confidence intervals. What do you reckon?

  3. Yeah, whenever I had a great season I was always way more interested in FPL than now. My goal for the final part of the season is to save face, but as I’m still stuck below the 100K mark it looks increasingly likely that I’ll fail even at this🙂 If I didn’t have this blog, I’d probably have quit the game by now. Feels good to see that you’re doing something interesting to people from all over the world, even if it’s some stupid fantasy football.

    Top 500 and a wildcard? Whoaaa, that’s amazing, well done. Top 100 should be yours, good luck!

    Now some crazy thoughts on the wildcard value and American options🙂

    Trying to figure out the value of a wildcard is rather tricky and requires some serious thinking. I also see some similarities with an American option, it’s a sort of insurance for the possible situation that your team would need some serious restructuring.

    Here is the way I see it. What is the value of an Amercan option? There are two components in the option value:
    Option Value = Intrinsic Value + Time Value,
    – the intrinsic value of an option is the value of exercising it now, i.e. the difference between the asset price and the strike price;
    – the time value reflects the probability that the option will gain in intrinsic value, i.e. become more profitable to exercise before it expires.
    Time value is the reason why an American option shouldn’t be excercised before its expiry.

    How can we draw an analogy to FPL?
    Intrinsic value would be the value of playing a wildcard now. Unlike the intrinsic value of an American option, this value is kind of vague:
    – it can be seen as the sum of point hits that you’d avoid by playing your wildcard
    – it’s a way to bring your team into a good shape for the near future, i.e. make some transfers that you wouldn’t do for points hits, say, organise your bench
    – it’s a good way to increase your team value which can be used in the future
    Time value reflects the possibility that there will be a better week to play your wildcard in the future. Obviously, it decreases towards the end of the season.

    Playing the wildcard early, you lose its time value (a chance to gain some extra points playing it later at a better moment), but its intrinsic value is more likely to be the highest during the season or maybe even in the first few weeks (not at the end of the season).

    Since you’re in the top 500 and still have your wildcard, I assume that you had a great start and didn’t need any serious restructuring (I had 4 injured and some non-delivering players at one point, that’s when I played mine). If your team is on form and doesn’t require any serious changes, then it’s probably better to wait until GW37 keeping the WC as an insurance.

    Phew, hope it wasn’t too boring… As I mentioned earlier, I’ve been planning a research article on transfer effiiciency. If I brace myself and write it, I’ll also look at wildcards there and try to come up with some numbers as long as they make any sense.

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