With only seven gameweeks left, we’re almost there. In just 44 days another FPL season will be over. I guess for most of us, it’s already clear whether it is a season to remember or one to forget. Personally, I’m heading to my worst finish ever and only a miracle can help me escape it. But I keep playing. However, many others have decided not to wait until the very end and have already forgotten about this FPL season before it’s over. As a result, FPL is swarming with dead teams. How many of them are around? How successful are they? Let’s take a look.
In December, I wrote my first article on dead teams. That article showed that 20% of FPL teams had been dead since the start of the season, 40% hadn’t been showing signs of life for 5 gameweeks. Some of the dead teams were doing relatively well: in the first 1 million, 0.6% of teams were the ones without any transfers at all.
In this post, I replicate that analysis using new data. I’ve run a script for another random sample of 50,000 randomly selected FPL teams. Here are the results.
This graph shows what percentage of teams haven’t made any transfers for a given number of gameweeks. Click on the graph to enlarge it.
- 55% of all FPL teams haven’t made any transfers for the last 5 gameweeks. It’s relatively safe to declare these teams dead: with all the blanks and DGW opportunities, recent weeks would have required transfer activity from any active FPL manager.
- Roughly 40% have been dead since mid-December, the time of my first article.
- 20% have made no transfers since the start of the season.
Given that there are 3.2m teams in FPL, it means that 640K teams were born dead, 1.1M teams died in process, and 1.5M teams are still playing.
This graph shows where all the inactive teams are ranked in the FPL standings. I’ve broken down the overall FPL league into 32 groups of 100,000 teams based on their overall rank and estimated the share of dead teams in each group. Here are the shares of teams with no transfers for the last 2 gameweeks, 5 gameweeks, 10 gameweeks and the whole season.Click on the graph to enlarge it.
- The vast majority of the dead teams are located in the botton half of the overall league. The percentage of dead teams starts to increase drastically as we approach the middle of the overall table. It pays off to be active.
This graph shows cumulative numbers, i.e. the shares of dead teams in the first 100K, 200K, 300K, 1M etc. Click on the graph to enlarge it.
- Only 0.1% of all the teams in the top 1M were dead from the beginning; 5% have made no transfers for the last 10 gameweeks; 14% have been absent for the 5 gameweeks.
At this point of the season, one would expect that only dedicated managers would have made it into the top 10K. Let’s see if that’s the case. Here is the number of teams in the top 10K that have been inactive on the transfer market for a given number of recent gameweeks:
- There are 131 teams in the top 10K which haven’t made any transfers for 5 gameweeks, and only 6 teams which haven’t made any transfers for 10 gameweeks.
- With no transfers for 11 gameweeks and only 11 transfers in total, this team is the ghostilest in the top 10K: click. Less total transfers (9, including wildcard transfers) have been made only by two teams: one & two.