GW 15 Intermediate Results – Sunday

Please welcome to the intermediate results for GW 15 with bonus points.

Overall average has risen by 4.4 points today; 3 players are still left to play or will be subbed in.

Average score in the top 10K is 31.6 (+9.4 points today) with 1 player left to play or to be subbed in.

SUMMARY

Random Sample Top 10K
Number of Managers 20,000 10,000
GW15 Average Score 25.9 31.6
Average Points Deducted for Point Hits 0.6 0.6
Players Played per Team (out of 12) 8.8 11.0
Captains Played 81.0% 99.6%

GAMEWEEK RANK PROJECTIONS

click here

AVERAGE POINTS DISTRIBUTION

GW15Average

AVERAGE POINTS PER TEAM BY SOURCE OF POINTS

Random Sample Top 10K
Source of Points Points % of the Average Points % of the Average
Minutes Played 16.1 62.2% 19.7 62.4%
Goals Scored 3.2 12.3% 5.2 16.5%
Assists 4.0 15.4% 7.3 22.9%
Clean Sheet Points 4.0 15.6% 3.3 10.3%
Goals Conceded -1.2 -4.3% -1.2 -3.7%
Own Goals and Penalty Misses -0.0 -0.0% -0.0 -0.0%
Red and Yellow Cards -3.1 -11.7% -5.8 -18.3%
Saves and Penalty Saves 0.3 1.3% 0.4 1.2%
Bonus Points 2.5 9.6% 2.8 8.9%
TOTAL 25.9 100.0% 31.6 100.0%

10 PLAYERS CONTRIBUTING THE MOST TO THE AVERAGE

Random Sample Top 10K
Player GW Points Per Average Team % of the Average Player GW Points Per Average Team % of the Average
Fábregas 6 3.3 12.8% Sánchez(ARS) 5 4.3 13.7%
Sánchez(ARS) 5 2.1 8.2% Fábregas 6 3.3 10.4%
Sterling 3 1.0 4.0% Austin 6 3.2 10.2%
Sigurdsson 2 1.0 3.8% Downing 7 2.8 8.8%
Ramsey 7 1.0 3.8% Hutton 8 2.4 7.5%
Downing 7 1.0 3.7% Agüero 1 1.8 5.8%
Yaya Touré 10 0.9 3.5% Sigurdsson 2 1.6 5.0%
Austin 6 0.9 3.4% Bony 7 1.4 4.6%
Diego Costa 1 0.7 2.7% Wisdom 6 1.2 3.7%
Bony 7 0.7 2.6% Hazard 2 1.1 3.4%

AVERAGE POINTS PER TEAM BY LINE IN FORMATION

Random Sample Top 10K
Line in Formation Points % of the Average Points % of the Average
Goalkeeper 2.3 8.7% 2.3 7.4%
Defenders 5.8 22.3% 5.9 18.7%
Midfielders 13.1 50.4% 15.2 48.1%
Forwards 4.8 18.7% 8.2 25.8%
Points for Captain 3.6 13.9% 2.5 8.0%
Points on the Bench 6.4 24.8% 5.8 18.2%
TOTAL 25.9 100.0% 31.6 100.0%

AVERAGE POINTS BY POSITION

Random Sample Top 10K
Position Points Points
Goalkeeper 3.3 2.9
Defender 2.6 2.3
Midfielder 3.7 3.9
Forward 2.2 2.6
(*) This table only accounts for players who have played positive minutes this week

GW 15 HALL OF FAME

Random Sample Top 10K
Maximum Points 74 points 70 points
Best Defense Line 44 points 31 points
Best Midfield Line 40 points 40 points
Best Forward Line 39 points 25 points
Best Bench 38 points 26 points
Bonus Points Magnet 16 points 11 points

GW 15 HALL OF SHAME

Random Sample Top 10K
Minimum Points 0 points 7 points
Worst Defense Line -4 points -5 points
Worst Midfield Line 0 points 3 points
Worst Forward Line 0 points 0 points
Cards Magnet -15 points -15 points

About This Post

In this post, I take a look at 2 samples: randomly selected 20,000 FPL teams and the top 10,000 FPL teams as of the start of the gameweek.

Guide to This Post

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5 comments on “GW 15 Intermediate Results – Sunday

  1. Excellent work. Use it every week. Quick question. Could you use this data to predict numbers of hits the top 10k might take given the previous weeks suspensions and injuries etc? Considering a -8 this week and I’m wondering whether this is the week to do it if a big chunk of people are doing something similar or who are playing with 10 players.

    • Hmmm, don’t think so as I don’t have any data for previous weeks’ suspensions, injuries, etc… I can only tell you that I’m expecting more hits than usual, but I think you shouldn’t take this information into account, but rather base your decisions on your own team’s needs.

      From the data that I have (this week’s top 10K) I can tell you the following.
      I’ve gone through all the goalkeepers and counted a goalkeeper as one if a team has at least one playing goalkeeper available for next week (14.35% will need to buy a new goalkeeper as they don’t have a playing goalkeeper next week).
      I’ve counted all the unflagged outfield players as available.

      So, in total a team may have 1 goalkeeper and 13 outfield players, 14 players in total. Counting this way:
      7 players – 30 teams
      8 players – 287 teams
      9 players – 1333 teams
      10 players – 3153 teams
      11 players – 3289 teams
      12 players – 1570 teams
      13 players – 320 teams
      14 players – 18 teams

      Or, on average:
      unflagged – 10.6 players
      red flagged – 2.0 players
      25% – 1.2 players
      50% – 0.0 players
      75% – 0.1 players

      So, basically if a team has 9 available players or less, it will have to make at least two transfers to field 11 players next week. There are 30+287+1333=1650, or 16.5%, such teams.
      Some of them will have 2 free transfers (this week, 30% teams in top 10K saved a transfer). So, we could estimate the number of forced points hits as 30+287+(1-0.3)*1333 = 1250, or 12.5%.

      + some outfield players are dropped and don’t play (Moore, Bruce), which means that the real number of forced point hits will be more than 12.5%
      + some players are rotated (Chadli) and can’t be relied on
      + some shouldn’t be played next week (Hull & Leicester defenders), so further hits may be required because of this.
      + selling Aguero will give people a lot of cash and it will be tempting to use it to upgrade midfielders or defenders
      + some people without a goalkeeper may find it hard to bench Aguero and would rather take a hit
      + some people just love point hits, an average GW sees 20% of top 10K players take a point hit.
      – top 10K has changed after this week, teams with sent off players were more likely to drop out and be replaced with teams that are in a better shape
      – some yellow flags may get removed (although this can go both ways as new injuries may appear in midweek)

      Taking all these factors into account and seeing that only 50% have 11+ unflagged players for next week, I wouldn’t be surpised if more than 50% of top 10K teams take some point hits this week.

      Hope this helps 😉

  2. Very helpful thanks. Lots of player behaviours to consider as well as assumptions and a few facts thrown in for good measure! Sort of helped me decide to go for the hits. I have no playing goalie, but could field 11 players if I just replace my goalie. However, I perceive my team to be weak and as I am still without Sanchez I court the risk of dropping out of the top 10k without him. Now seems the best opportunity to bring him in with the money I save by shifting out Aguero. Beneteke would be his replacement and therefore a differential to offset my herd instinct to go for Sanchez. On top of all that I need a goalie. I have 1 FT so it will cost me 3 transfers and 8 points. All makes sense and there is every chance my transfers will do better than my starting 11 would have done and earn me some of those 8 point back AND I start the following week with Sanchez. Amazing how you can rationalise these things…..!

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