Season 14/15 – Final Top 1,000 Teams

For those interested in the very elite of FPL, here is another season summary focusing on the final top 1K. It contains similar analysis as the top 10K study published earlier except for one extra table. The final top 1K teams of season 13/14 were examined here.

Top 1K History Pages

History Pages of TOP 1K Teams 2014/15
# 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 TOTAL
Number of previous seasons 31 89 111 138 149 138 119 99 126 1,000
% 3.1% 8.9% 11.1% 13.8% 14.9% 13.8% 11.9% 9.9% 12.6% 100%
Previous top 10K finishes 507 255 124 70 33 7 4 0 0 1,000
% 50.7% 25.5% 12.4% 7% 3.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0% 0% 100%
Previous top 1K finishes 855 108 32 5 0 0 0 0 0 1,000
% 85.5% 10.8% 3.2% 0.5% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 100%
  • All the conclusions made in the top 10K study apply to the top 1K too: this season was the one for the experienced FPL managers. Fewer teams with 2 or less seasons on their history pages, fewer players without a top 10K or a top 1K finish in the past.
  • 31 teams managed to get into top 1K for a second season in a row. Just 2 teams accomplished 3 successive top 1K finishes: AFC Chenkooey by Sean Creamer and Divine Mercy ✝ ★★★★★ by Matthew Martyniak.

 Players Selected

Here is a table showing how many teams ignored a particular FPL player all season and still made it into the top 1K. I have also calculated an average number of weeks that a certain player spent in an average top 1K team.

Players Selected by Top 1K
# Player Selected at Least Once Never Selected By Average Number of Weeks in Average Team
1 Hazard 1,000 0 26.0
2 Agüero 1,000 0 24.1
3 Kane 999 1 18.8
4 Sánchez 994 6 21.9
5 Silva 992 8 15.3
6 Sterling 989 11 12.1
7 Costa 988 12 17.6
8 Sigurdsson 984 16 17.3
9 Rooney 982 18 6.4
10 Austin 971 29 11.1
11 Eriksen 922 78 7.6
12 van Aanholt 922 78 12
13 Giroud 912 88 7.4
14 Ramsey 911 89 5.1
15 Di María 886 114 7.7
16 Terry 848 152 13.8
17 Fàbregas 840 160 10.2
18 Baines 793 207 8.4
19 Mata 791 209 2.6
20 Krul 789 211 13.7

Last season, there was no football player who would have been picked by all of the final top 1K teams at least once. Even Luis Suarez was never picked by one FPL team which managed to accomplish a top 1K finish without his services. This season, no one in the top 1K was able to ignore Hazard or Aguero. Simon Burton’s ‘You need seven‘ imposed an embargo on Harry Kane and didn’t lift it until the very end; this decision didn’t hinder him from finishing in top 1K ranked at place 238.

Road to Success

a. Getting there for the first time

Halfway through last season, 79% of the final top 1K teams were outside top 1K, 33% were outside top 10K. This season’s second half was more boring. After GW 19, only 59% of the final top 1K teams were not in top 1K yet, 9% were ranked below the top 10K mark. If you didn’t start well, the second half of the season didn’t give you many chances to regain lost ground. Experienced FPL managers had already occupied the upper echelons of FPL rankings by that time and didn’t give away many chances to catch them afterwards.

Arrival1KThe diagram above shows what share of the final top 1K teams:

  • were in top 1K after any particular gameweek (dark bars);
  • had already been in top 1K at least once after a particular gameweek (light bars).

Arrival2The diagram above shows what share of the final top 1K teams:

  • were in top 10K after any particular gameweek (dark bars);
  • had already been in top 10K at least once after a particular gameweek (light bars).

b. Overall Ranks

Here is another way to see how dull the second half of this season was. Only 5%, or 50 teams, ranked below 15K halfway through the season managed to get into the final top 1K. Last season, there were over almost 250 such teams.

OR1K1H OR1K2HAbove, I calculate average overall ranks for different percentiles of the final top 1K:

  • the median, or 50%, shows where the ‘middle team’ of the sample was, i.e. so that 50% of the final top 1K were above and 50% of the final top 1K were below this team;
  • the 75th percentile corresponds to the current overall rank so that 25% of the final teams were below it;
  • the 95th percentile corresponds to the current overall rank so that 5% of the final teams were below it;

Because of scaling issues, I divide this diagram into two, one for each half of the season. I don’t include the worst team’s overall rank for the same reason.


c. Overall Points

Two top 500 gameweek ranks in a row let Inter Minan (Rick Hesketh) cover a 65 point lag from top 1K in the two final gameweeks of the season.

Gaps1K

The diagram above shows how a distance from concurrent top 1K mark changed during the season for:

  • the median team of the final top 1K teams, i.e. so that 50% of the final top 1K teams had less points at that moment;
  • the 75th percentile;
  • the 95th percentile; and
  • the worst team of the final top 1K at each point.

Transfers and Point Hits

An average top 1K team made 41.6 transfers. Numbers ranged from 24 (Réal Estate by Phil Gwyn) to 73 (MRMOJORISIN by Paul Boothroyd) transfers in total. The distribution for the number of transfers is below; the graph also shows average overall ranks calculated for each number of transfers made.

TR1K

The diagram below shows the distribution of points spent on transfers. For an average final top 1K team extra transfers cost 28.2 points. Only 18 teams took no point hits at all, and this number includes the champion, Simon March. MRMOJORISIN by Paul Boothroyd spent 156 points on extra transfers.

PH1K

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