For those interested in the very elite of FPL, here is another season summary focusing on the final top 1K. It contains similar analysis as the top 10K study published earlier except for one extra table. The final top 1K teams of season 13/14 were examined here.
Top 1K History Pages
|Number of previous seasons||31||89||111||138||149||138||119||99||126||1,000|
|Previous top 10K finishes||507||255||124||70||33||7||4||0||0||1,000|
|Previous top 1K finishes||855||108||32||5||0||0||0||0||0||1,000|
- All the conclusions made in the top 10K study apply to the top 1K too: this season was the one for the experienced FPL managers. Fewer teams with 2 or less seasons on their history pages, fewer players without a top 10K or a top 1K finish in the past.
- 31 teams managed to get into top 1K for a second season in a row. Just 2 teams accomplished 3 successive top 1K finishes: AFC Chenkooey by Sean Creamer and Divine Mercy ✝ ★★★★★ by Matthew Martyniak.
Here is a table showing how many teams ignored a particular FPL player all season and still made it into the top 1K. I have also calculated an average number of weeks that a certain player spent in an average top 1K team.
|#||Player||Selected at Least Once||Never Selected By||Average Number of Weeks in Average Team|
Last season, there was no football player who would have been picked by all of the final top 1K teams at least once. Even Luis Suarez was never picked by one FPL team which managed to accomplish a top 1K finish without his services. This season, no one in the top 1K was able to ignore Hazard or Aguero. Simon Burton’s ‘You need seven‘ imposed an embargo on Harry Kane and didn’t lift it until the very end; this decision didn’t hinder him from finishing in top 1K ranked at place 238.
Road to Success
a. Getting there for the first time
Halfway through last season, 79% of the final top 1K teams were outside top 1K, 33% were outside top 10K. This season’s second half was more boring. After GW 19, only 59% of the final top 1K teams were not in top 1K yet, 9% were ranked below the top 10K mark. If you didn’t start well, the second half of the season didn’t give you many chances to regain lost ground. Experienced FPL managers had already occupied the upper echelons of FPL rankings by that time and didn’t give away many chances to catch them afterwards.
- were in top 1K after any particular gameweek (dark bars);
- had already been in top 1K at least once after a particular gameweek (light bars).
- were in top 10K after any particular gameweek (dark bars);
- had already been in top 10K at least once after a particular gameweek (light bars).
b. Overall Ranks
Here is another way to see how dull the second half of this season was. Only 5%, or 50 teams, ranked below 15K halfway through the season managed to get into the final top 1K. Last season, there were over almost 250 such teams.
- the median, or 50%, shows where the ‘middle team’ of the sample was, i.e. so that 50% of the final top 1K were above and 50% of the final top 1K were below this team;
- the 75th percentile corresponds to the current overall rank so that 25% of the final teams were below it;
- the 95th percentile corresponds to the current overall rank so that 5% of the final teams were below it;
Because of scaling issues, I divide this diagram into two, one for each half of the season. I don’t include the worst team’s overall rank for the same reason.
c. Overall Points
Two top 500 gameweek ranks in a row let Inter Minan (Rick Hesketh) cover a 65 point lag from top 1K in the two final gameweeks of the season.
The diagram above shows how a distance from concurrent top 1K mark changed during the season for:
- the median team of the final top 1K teams, i.e. so that 50% of the final top 1K teams had less points at that moment;
- the 75th percentile;
- the 95th percentile; and
- the worst team of the final top 1K at each point.
Transfers and Point Hits
An average top 1K team made 41.6 transfers. Numbers ranged from 24 (Réal Estate by Phil Gwyn) to 73 (MRMOJORISIN by Paul Boothroyd) transfers in total. The distribution for the number of transfers is below; the graph also shows average overall ranks calculated for each number of transfers made.
The diagram below shows the distribution of points spent on transfers. For an average final top 1K team extra transfers cost 28.2 points. Only 18 teams took no point hits at all, and this number includes the champion, Simon March. MRMOJORISIN by Paul Boothroyd spent 156 points on extra transfers.