Research Season Results

Season 2013/14 Summary – Ownerships


description summary of FPL Discovery posts for season 2013/14
gameweeks included 12-38 (first 11 gameweeks are missing)
samples examined – random samples of 20,000 FPL teams
– samples of top 10,000 FPL teams as of the start of each gameweek
team selection
Ownerships
scoring

Ownerships

I’m not really sure how to sum up the stats on ownerships, so I decided to look at:

  1. the effect of highly owned players on gameweek average scores
  2. weekly changes in ownership in top 10K for the most remarkle players of this season.

1. Ownership of 10 Most Owned Players

This diagram shows how important highly owned players are. If we take the top 10 players most popular in starting line-ups and add their captaincy rates to their starting percentages, then we’ll see what share of the final average score they’ll determine.

10 most owned

  • In top 10K, 10 most owned players made up on average 6.6 players out of 12 per team (incl. captain twice). It means that their points determine over a half of the top 10K weekly average score. The other 600+ players in the league taken together affect the average points scored to a lesser extent.
  • In FPL in general, there was more variety. On average, 10 most owned players accounted for only 3.5 players per team, i.e. they determined only 29% of the value of the overall average score.

2. Top 10K Changes in Ownerships

In this section, I’d like to look at changes in ownerships in the top 10K samples. From one week to another, a player’s ownership among top 10K teams changes as a result of two components:

  1. net transfers in,
  2. turnover of FPL teams in the 10K sample.

The diagram below depicts ownership dynamics for Seamus Coleman. Blue bars show current ownership level. Green bars show the number of net transfers in (as a % of 10,000 teams). And red bars show the effect of ‘new old owners’, i.e. those managers who are new to the top 10K but already had the player before (‘old owners’).

Coleman

  • As we can see, Coleman’s ownership rate increased from around 40% in GW 12 to almost 90% in GW22. What’s interesting is that this increase was mostly due to red bars, i.e. teams with Coleman outside of the top 10K replacing teams without Coleman in the top 10K. Over this period, his onwership increased by 48%, only 17% of which were net transfers in, while 31% were ‘new old owners’.
  • After GW13 the top 10K saw 26.4% new teams enter it from outside of the top 10K. Coleman was the major asset for those teams, 1,220 new teams with Coleman replaced the ones without him.

2.1. Top 10K Most Transfers In and Most Transfers Out

The tables below show this season’s records for ‘green bars’ and ‘red bars’ described above, i.e. the biggest changes in ownership due to transfers and due to ‘new old owners’.

This table is for NTI, or green bars. Each player’s name contains a link to a diagram like the one for Coleman above.

Top 10K Biggest Bandwagons
Top 10K Biggest Anti-Bandwagons
Player GW IN GW points Player GW OUT GW points
Ramsey 36 51.6% 2 Yaya Touré 35 73.1% 0
Yaya Touré 37 44.4% 17 Agüero 17 62.3% 0
Rooney 36 38.7% 13 Agüero 24 50.2% 0
Sturridge 38 36.6% 8 Walcott 21 50.2% 0
Lukaku 30 32.8% 2 Rooney 38 49.4% 0
Negredo 17 32.5% 5 Hazard 34 46% 0
Agüero 22 29.7% 10 Ramsey 19 41.3% 0
Agüero 35 29.1% 12 Silva 36 40.1% 0
Eriksen 35 28.2% 11 Rooney 21 38.6% 0
Mata 35 27.8% 2 Adebayor 30 37.5% 2

2.2. Top 10K Most Influential Player Picks

This table is for ‘new old owners’, or red bars. Each player’s name contains a link to a diagram like the one for Coleman above.

TOP 10K Best Player Picks
Top 10K Worst Player Picks
Player GW Old Owners IN Previous GW points Player GW Old Owners Out Previous GW points
Coleman 14 12.2% 13 Agüero 38 -10.4% 5
Rooney 14 12.1% 13 Agüero 14 -9.5% 1
Dzeko 38 11.8% 25 Rooney 15 -8.7% 1
Sturridge 27 11.6% 15 Özil 13 -8.2% 3
Hazard 26 11.4% 21 Negredo 20 -6.8% 1
Hazard 20 10.3% 10 Baines 13 -6.6% 0
Hazard 15 10.1% 17 Negredo 23 -6.5% 1
Özil 16 9.9% 10 Sturridge 13 -6.4% 6
Yaya Touré 15 9.8% 15 Lukaku 19 -6.2% 2
Suárez 15 9.6% 24 Lallana 35 -5.8% 2
  • A combo of Coleman and Rooney let plenty of FPL managers break into the top 10K in GW 13.
  • Aguero instead of Dzeko in GW 37 cost a lot of FPL managers a place in the top 10K. On the other hand, 1180 teams should be infinitely greatful to the Bosnian who brought them on his shoulders to the sacred land of the top 10,000 FPL teams at the very end of the season.

READ FURTHER
team selection
Ownerships
scoring

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