Research Season Results

Season 2013/14 Summary – Transfers


description summary of FPL Discovery posts for season 2013/14
gameweeks included 12-38 (first 11 gameweeks are missing)
samples examined – random samples of 20,000 FPL teams
– samples of top 10,000 FPL teams as of the start of each gameweek
team selection
Transfers
scoring

Transfers

In this section, I look at the average number of gameweek transfers.

1. Average Breakdown

Average Weekly Number of Transfers

  • Difference in transfer activity between top teams and other FPL teams is striking. In an average gameweek, 70% of FPL teams didn’t make any transfers. The corresponding number for top 10K samples was only 21.7%. During the season top 10K teams were mostly active with very rare exceptions, so the difference of 50% could be a good indicator of the average number of dead teams in the game during the period from GW 12 to GW 38. This estimate is in line with my articles on dead teams, which showed an increase in the number of dead teams from some 40% in GW 15 to 55% in GW31.
  • What I find interesting is that despite the huge share of dead teams, the average percentage of teams who made 4 or more transfers was still higher in FPL in general than among top teams, 1.9% vs 1.7% respectively. What could be the reason? Probably some people are not aware that transfers cost points, some people go for team value rather than points, others simply don’t care about overall points and enjoy each gameweek🙂 Anyway, such gents are unsurprisingly less representative among top teams.

2. Breakdown Dynamics

Below you can see how the breakdown of the number of transfers varied from gameweek to gameweek in each kind of my samples. Gameweek 21 is missing because the introduction of January wildcards partly broke my script for that week.

2.1. Random sample dynamics

Number of Transfers Breakdown - Random Sample

2.2. Top 10K dynamics

Number of Transfers Breakdown - Top 10K

  • While transfers became less popular among casual FPL players towards the end of the season as lots of them departed into the world of ghost teams, top 10K teams became more and more desperate on the transfers market. The period from GW34 to GW37 was the most hectic one: only 7-9% of top teams could go without any new signings in one of these gameweeks. GW37 set the record for the share of teams with 3 transfers (24%) and 4 transfers and more (8%).

3. Average Number of Transfers Made

This time series is a bad one in terms of consistency. Initially, I included wildcard transfers into this metrics. But having seen the spark of transfers in GW21 when people started to play their January wildcards, I modified my script to exclude wildcard transfers. Anyway, accepting the risk of comparing oranges with apples, here is the summary for these data.

Number of Transfers

  • In the whole FPL, an average team made 0.54 transfers per gameweek (I exclude GW21 from analysis here); this number varied from 0.40 to 0.79 during the season.
  • With the average of 1.24, top 10K teams were way more active. In fact, the lowest observation for this sample recorded in GW27 (0.80 transfers) was higher then the highest one for the random sample (0.79).
Random Sample Top 10K Sample
STATS Value GW Value GW
Average (excl. GW21) 0.54 1.24
Minimum 0.40 33 0.80 27
Maximum (excl. GW21) 0.79 17 2.06 37


READ FURTHER
team selection
Transfers
scoring

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